← Serie B 2011-12 · Mon, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juve Stabia win | 36% | 52% | 2.60 | value: +34% ⚠ |
| Gubbio win | 35% | 21% | 2.63 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gubbio | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1253.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1390.94 | 1529.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.18 | 13.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 31.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.50 |
| state index | -0.76 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |