← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pescara win | 58% | 40% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +5% |
| Grosseto win | 19% | 34% | 5.25 | value: +76% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grosseto | Pescara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 309.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1463.84 | 1564.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.05 | 27.46 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 2.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 48.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.92 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |