← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 39% | 30% | 2.30 | fair |
| Cittadella win | 34% | 37% | 2.70 | fair |
| Bari win | 26% | 33% | 3.50 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cittadella | Bari |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1039.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1424.72 | 1499.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.46 | -28.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 44.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.37 |
| state index | -0.80 | -0.75 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |