← Serie B 2011-12 · Tue, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varese win | 54% | 63% | 1.75 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
| Nocerina win | 18% | 14% | 5.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Varese | Nocerina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1552.17 | 1415.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.61 | 10.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 59.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 0.92 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |