← Serie B 2011-12 · Tue, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggina win | 39% | 34% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 30% | 37% | 3.10 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reggina | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 30.00 | 547.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1528.10 | 1541.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.68 | -10.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 54.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.81 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |