← Serie B 2011-12 · Tue, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova win | 41% | 39% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 2.88 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 27% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Padova | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 305.00 | 578.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1520.00 | 1561.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.01 | -14.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 60.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.86 |
| state index | -0.82 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |