← Serie B 2011-12 · Tue, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juve Stabia win | 50% | 56% | 1.85 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
| Grosseto win | 20% | 18% | 4.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juve Stabia | Grosseto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1247.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1533.61 | 1460.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.80 | 15.55 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 56.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.51 | 1.27 |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |