← Serie B 2011-12 · Tue, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 52% | 57% | 1.83 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Gubbio win | 20% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Gubbio |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 90.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1421.12 | 1398.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.24 | -7.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 35.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.84 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |