← Serie B 2011-12 · Tue, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crotone win | 45% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 35% | 28% | 2.75 | fair |
| Cittadella win | 20% | 28% | 4.50 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Cittadella |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 121.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1485.25 | 1435.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.44 | -12.65 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 45.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.19 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |