← Serie B 2011-12 · Tue, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bari win | 42% | 46% | 2.25 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 34% | 31% | 2.80 | fair |
| Ascoli win | 25% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bari | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1035.00 | 547.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1501.06 | 1497.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.84 | 36.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 51.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.30 |
| state index | -0.48 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |