← Serie B 2011-12 · Tue, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brescia win | 46% | 42% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
| Albinoleffe win | 25% | 29% | 3.75 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Albinoleffe | Brescia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1336.22 | 1515.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.67 | -28.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 25.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.43 |
| state index | -2.14 | -0.56 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |