← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 60% | 52% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.60 | value: +3% |
| Crotone win | 15% | 19% | 6.50 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 302.00 | 118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1575.17 | 1491.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.96 | 57.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 67.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.25 |
| state index | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |