← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 56% | 48% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 34% | 3.50 | value: +20% |
| Bari win | 17% | 18% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Bari |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 179.00 | 1032.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1574.60 | 1510.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.73 | -7.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 55.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.42 |
| state index | 0.65 | -0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |