← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggina win | 67% | 56% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +9% |
| Albinoleffe win | 11% | 19% | 9.00 | value: +75% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reggina | Albinoleffe |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 27.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1524.15 | 1340.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.29 | -41.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 51.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 0.71 |
| state index | 0.06 | -2.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |