← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 39% | 30% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 30% | 2.80 | fair |
| Juve Stabia win | 28% | 40% | 3.40 | value: +36% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2888.00 | 1244.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1494.33 | 1550.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.60 | 52.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 45.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.56 |
| state index | 0.61 | 0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |