← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova win | 36% | 39% | 2.70 | value: +6% |
| Grosseto win | 32% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grosseto | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1460.18 | 1520.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.57 | -38.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 46.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.64 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |