← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli win | 39% | 37% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 34% | 32% | 2.88 | fair |
| Livorno win | 27% | 31% | 3.60 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ascoli | Livorno |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 544.00 | 452.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1486.90 | 1435.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 46.53 | -18.46 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 45.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.09 |
| state index | 0.65 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |