← Serie B 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brescia win | 40% | 37% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 35% | 2.88 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brescia | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 148.00 | 574.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1526.54 | 1550.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.76 | -19.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 53.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.83 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |