← Serie B 2011-12 · Tue, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livorno win | 53% | 46% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Cittadella win | 17% | 26% | 6.00 | value: +54% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Livorno | Cittadella |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 448.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1448.04 | 1431.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.90 | -22.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 38.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.17 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.54 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |