← Serie B 2011-12 · Wed, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 55% | 48% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
| Reggina win | 18% | 22% | 5.50 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Reggina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 299.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1567.87 | 1531.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.24 | 8.46 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 64.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.46 |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |