← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 62% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
| Gubbio win | 13% | 13% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Gubbio |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 568.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1574.23 | 1386.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.77 | -30.15 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 64.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 0.80 |
| state index | 0.26 | -1.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |