← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggina win | 45% | 50% | 2.10 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
| Crotone win | 26% | 22% | 3.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reggina | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 13.00 | 104.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1517.44 | 1472.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.56 | 38.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 47.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.21 |
| state index | -0.10 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |