← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varese win | 36% | 44% | 2.63 | value: +15% |
| Modena win | 32% | 24% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Varese |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2874.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1477.95 | 1566.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.77 | -11.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 41.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.62 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |