← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gubbio win | 41% | 36% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
| Vicenza win | 27% | 32% | 3.75 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gubbio | Vicenza |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1388.10 | 1384.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.77 | -28.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| league points | 27.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 0.94 |
| state index | -1.37 | -1.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |