← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grosseto win | 45% | 51% | 2.10 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.30 | fair |
| Nocerina win | 26% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grosseto | Nocerina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1450.65 | 1408.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.28 | 22.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 43.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 0.82 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |