← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cittadella win | 40% | 44% | 2.40 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
| Ascoli win | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cittadella | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 530.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1449.19 | 1454.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.85 | 18.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 41.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |