← Serie B 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juve Stabia win | 37% | 38% | 2.50 | fair |
| Padova win | 33% | 34% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juve Stabia | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1229.00 | 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1531.04 | 1560.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.78 | 11.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 50.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.74 |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |