← Serie B 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 51% | 53% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
| Modena win | 20% | 18% | 4.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 553.00 | 2866.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1578.65 | 1473.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.56 | 37.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 63.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.21 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |