← Serie B 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nocerina win | 40% | 35% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
| Empoli win | 29% | 39% | 3.25 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nocerina | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1398.66 | 1441.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.15 | 30.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 25.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.03 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |