← Serie B 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cittadella win | 51% | 51% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
| Gubbio win | 20% | 20% | 4.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cittadella | Gubbio |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1442.17 | 1395.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.51 | -44.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 38.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.82 |
| state index | -1.15 | -1.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |