← Serie B 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brescia win | 40% | 33% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 28% | 34% | 3.40 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brescia | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 127.00 | 522.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1545.27 | 1557.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.16 | 1.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| league points | 50.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.91 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |