← Serie B 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bari win | 47% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| Grosseto win | 22% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bari | Grosseto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1010.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1528.19 | 1446.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.08 | -8.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 49.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.27 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |