← Serie B 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli win | 48% | 44% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| Albinoleffe win | 23% | 28% | 4.20 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ascoli | Albinoleffe |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 522.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1448.30 | 1352.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.48 | -45.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 36.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.76 |
| state index | 0.02 | -2.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |