← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 61% | 65% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
| Nocerina win | 13% | 12% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Nocerina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 151.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1571.54 | 1405.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.82 | 15.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 48.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.78 |
| state index | 0.65 | -0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |