← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pescara win | 57% | 46% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +6% |
| Bari win | 18% | 27% | 5.75 | value: +58% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pescara | Bari |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 274.00 | 1004.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1537.02 | 1515.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.50 | 0.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 62.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.44 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |