← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova win | 52% | 53% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| Crotone win | 19% | 21% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Padova | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 274.00 | 90.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1566.01 | 1445.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.70 | 17.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 56.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.09 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |