← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 42% | 39% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
| Ascoli win | 27% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2860.00 | 516.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1461.10 | 1460.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.40 | 35.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 37.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.13 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |