← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juve Stabia win | 36% | 31% | 2.60 | fair |
| Varese win | 33% | 38% | 2.90 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juve Stabia | Varese |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1216.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1500.81 | 1574.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.74 | 7.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 44.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.63 |
| state index | -0.47 | 0.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |