← Serie B 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC win | 55% | 55% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| Cittadella win | 17% | 18% | 5.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Cittadella |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 515.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1552.27 | 1447.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.62 | -24.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| league points | 60.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 5.96 | 5.96 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.19 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |