← Serie B 2010-11 · Sun, May 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piacenza win | 53% | 12% | 1.67 | fair |
| Varese win | 24% | 62% | 4.20 | value: +159% ⚠ |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Varese | Piacenza |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1548.10 | 1407.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.48 | -27.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 65.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.12 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |