← Serie B 2010-11 · Sun, May 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 70% | 40% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 34% | 4.50 | value: +52% |
| Reggina win | 10% | 26% | 10.00 | value: +162% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Reggina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 240.00 | 697.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1469.96 | 1508.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.65 | 33.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 48.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.49 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |