← Serie B 2010-11 · Sun, May 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portogruaro win | 41% | 34% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 32% | 2.75 | fair |
| Crotone win | 27% | 34% | 3.50 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portogruaro | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2249.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1390.39 | 1445.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.38 | -13.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 40.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.98 | 1.24 |
| state index | -1.04 | -0.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |