← Serie B 2010-11 · Sun, May 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 36% | 29% | 2.50 | fair |
| Atalanta BC win | 35% | 47% | 2.75 | value: +29% |
| Grosseto win | 30% | 24% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grosseto | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 362.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1456.00 | 1600.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.84 | -5.82 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 50.00 | 78.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.90 |
| state index | -0.20 | 0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |