← Serie B 2010-11 · Sun, May 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli win | 81% | 48% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 30% | 8.00 | value: +142% ⚠ |
| Triestina win | 7% | 21% | 13.00 | value: +177% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ascoli | Triestina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 209.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1464.02 | 1389.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.59 | -9.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 53.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.98 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |