← Serie B 2010-11 · Sun, May 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albinoleffe win | 71% | 24% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 27% | 5.50 | value: +51% |
| Siena win | 12% | 48% | 9.00 | value: +335% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Albinoleffe | Siena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1431.10 | 1601.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.09 | -18.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 46.00 | 77.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.88 |
| state index | -0.61 | 0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |