← Serie B 2010-11 · Mon, May 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena win | 43% | 41% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 39% | 34% | 2.20 | fair |
| Varese win | 18% | 24% | 4.80 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Siena | Varese |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1586.14 | 1563.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.39 | 1.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| league points | 74.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 1.63 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |