← Serie B 2010-11 · Fri, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli win | 58% | 19% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 31% | 4.00 | value: +24% |
| Siena win | 18% | 50% | 5.50 | value: +177% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ascoli | Siena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 193.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1448.39 | 1598.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.03 | -6.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| league points | 49.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.90 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |