← Serie B 2010-11 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 56% | 28% | 1.57 | fair |
| Siena win | 28% | 59% | 3.25 | value: +93% ⚠ |
| Torino FC win | 15% | 13% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Siena | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 491.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1602.98 | 1503.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.78 | 11.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 73.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.39 |
| state index | 0.46 | 0.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |