← Serie B 2010-11 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova win | 43% | 49% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 29% | 2.80 | fair |
| Ascoli win | 24% | 22% | 3.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Padova | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 187.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1490.47 | 1459.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.61 | 12.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| league points | 50.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.29 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |