← Serie B 2010-11 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 47% | 26% | 1.91 | fair |
| Empoli win | 36% | 53% | 2.50 | value: +32% ⚠ |
| Albinoleffe win | 17% | 21% | 5.75 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Albinoleffe |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1131.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1470.03 | 1446.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.48 | 24.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 49.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.16 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |